In the last of his quartet of bite-sized Assemblies on investing, Timeline investment strategist, Laurentius van den Worm, tackles the topic of market forecasting.
Given our recent experience with high inflation, higher interest rates not to mention pandemics, wars and conflict, is there much point attempting to forecast the future?
Or put another way: what’s the outlook for forecasting (geddit? 😉)
Tune in and you’ll soon discover that Laurentius thinks three things are worth remembering:
First, active managers rarely outperform the market long-term. Investors should get low-cost market exposure rather than try to beat it.
Secondly, missing just a few of the stock market’s best days over decades can seriously affect overall returns. Timing the market is extremely difficult, so investors should stay invested.
And finally, equities have created significant wealth over the past century and remain an essential feature of long-term financial plans.
What’s more fixed income can help reduce volatility (and traditional asset allocation still makes sense despite recent volatility).
The takeaway? Long-term historic trends remain a pretty sound basis for forecasts despite recent volatility. And equities tend to reward patient investors with long time horizons.
Rather than market timing, appropriate asset allocation and risk management enable investors to endure short-term swings.
But don’t take our word for it. Listen yourself now.
Listen now
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Missed out on previous episodes?
Catch up now with the first three episodes this bite-sized Assembly series.
Part 1: On modern portfolio theory. Laurentius explores modern portfolio theory’s key principles – like diversification and concepts such as the ‘efficient frontier – illustrating the topic with practical examples.
âž” Watch now
âž” Listen now
Part 2: On asset allocation. Join Laurentius as he explores the topic of asset allocation, asset classes, diversification of risk, real estate investment, and performance of real estate investment trusts compared to global equities.
âž” Watch now
âž” Listen now
Part 3: On sequencing risk. Laurentius brings the issues of sequencing risk to life by using an example of two sisters with equal returns but different retirement income due to market loss timing. (And explores essential concepts along the way too.)
âž” Watch now
âž” Listen now
About Laurentius van den Worm CFA
Laurentius joined the Timeline Investment team in January 2022 after moving to the United Kingdom from South Africa. He serves as an investment strategist who oversees the fund research and selection, asset allocation and portfolio construction functions in collaboration with the CIO.
Laurentius has seven years experience in the South African investment markets. In his previous role, he served as an investment analyst and financial consultant in the wealth management industry in South Africa, where he gained experience in various financial activities, including portfolio management, investment research, financial analysis, and wealth management.
Laurentius holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Investment Management and a post-graduate diploma in financial planning from Stellenbosch University. He obtained his CFP® designation in South Africa in 2017 and is CFA Level 3 qualified in the UK.
The team from Transact recently joined us to record a series of fantastic 5-10 minute audio treats. We hope you enjoy them.
Have you ever wondered what goes on behind the scenes when you place a trade on a platform? In this bite-sized Paraplanners’ Assembly Transact’s head of distribution, Glen Sweet, does just that.
In just FIVE minutes, Glen tells host, Richard Allum, all about trading points, settlement periods (including the difference between settlement of equities and funds), reconciliations, execution prices, trading windows…you get the idea.
When you consider the intro takes about 60 seconds it’s AMAZING how much insight and knowledge Glen packs in to his remaining 4 minutes and 23 seconds.
So if you’ve ever wanted to lift the lid on the workings of a platform, tune in to this episode for insights galore!
In the third episode of his series of bite-sized Assembly on investing, Timeline’s Laurentius van den Worm takes on the topic of sequencing risk.
In just 15 minutes he offers a working definition of sequencing risk he brings the topic to life with an example of two fictional sisters who – despite enjoying identical returns over their 30-year retirement journey – experience starkly different levels of income during…all because of the consequences of sequencing risk.
What’s more, Laurentius explores pound cost averaging and ravaging as well as the ‘4% rule’.
For paraplanners keen to top up on your investment know-how, it’s the ideal lunchtime listen.
Listen now
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Missed out on previous episodes?
Catch up now with the first two episodes this bite-sized Assembly series.
Part 1: On modern portfolio theory. Laurentius explores modern portfolio theory’s key principles – like diversification and concepts such as the ‘efficient frontier – illustrating the topic with practical examples.
âž” Watch now
âž” Listen now
Part 2: On asset allocation. Join Laurentius as he explores the topic of asset allocation, asset classes, diversification of risk, real estate investment, and performance of real estate investment trusts compared to global equities.
âž” Watch now
âž” Listen now
About Laurentius van den Worm CFA
Laurentius joined the Timeline Investment team in January 2022 after moving to the United Kingdom from South Africa. He serves as an investment strategist who oversees the fund research and selection, asset allocation and portfolio construction functions in collaboration with the CIO.
Laurentius has seven years experience in the South African investment markets. In his previous role, he served as an investment analyst and financial consultant in the wealth management industry in South Africa, where he gained experience in various financial activities, including portfolio management, investment research, financial analysis, and wealth management.
Laurentius holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Investment Management and a post-graduate diploma in financial planning from Stellenbosch University. He obtained his CFP® designation in South Africa in 2017 and is CFA Level 3 qualified in the UK.
Timeline’s Laurentius van den Worm returns for the second in his series of four fast-paced fact-filled bite-sized Assemblies.
In the last episode, investment strategist Laurentius looked at modern portfolio theory (you can watch or listen to that episode after this).
This week, he takes on the topic of asset allocation.
Watch and – in less than 20 minutes – you will explore what asset allocation is and why it’s important. You’ll consider the characteristics of assets classes and what different types are. And you’ll dig into the question of whether asset class really are helpful if you want to diversify risk. Plus you’ll discover what the nature of the risks are.
Laurentius also asks why real estate is important before setting out the potential routes to gain exposure to property in a portfolio.
Finally, he takes a look at the performance of real estate investment trusts vs global equities – including a brief look at the correlation between global equities and real estate and what it tells us about the nature of diversification benefits.
Download Laurentius’s slides
Throughout his talk, Laurentius refers to a slidedeck. Follow the link below to download the slides as a PDF.
About Laurentius van den Worm CFA
Laurentius joined the Timeline Investment team in January 2022 after moving to the United Kingdom from South Africa. He serves as an investment strategist who oversees the fund research and selection, asset allocation and portfolio construction functions in collaboration with the CIO.
Laurentius has seven years experience in the South African investment markets. In his previous role, he served as an investment analyst and financial consultant in the wealth management industry in South Africa, where he gained experience in various financial activities, including portfolio management, investment research, financial analysis, and wealth management.
Laurentius holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Investment Management and a post-graduate diploma in financial planning from Stellenbosch University. He obtained his CFP® designation in South Africa in 2017 and is CFA Level 3 qualified in the UK.
Timeline’s investment strategist, Laurentius van den Worm, serves up a fast-paced fact-filled bite-sized Assembly exploring the elements of modern portfolio theory.
Following a whistle-stop summary of the origins of modern portfolio theory, Laurentius introduces the five key principles driving the approach: risk and return trade-off, diversification, risk assessment and the correlation of assets.
And if you’re wondering ‘But that’s just four principles!?’, you’d be right. That’s because Laurentius goes pretty deep into the fifth principle: the idea of the ‘efficient frontier’.
As well as looking at the efficient frontier in theory before seeing how it really plays out in practice (using Timeline’s technology to illustrate it, of course).
Along the way, he considers criticisms of modern portfolio theory too.
Altogether, it’s a great primer that’s packed full of insights and information that will appeal to paraplanners at every stage in their career.
Listen to this Assembly
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Download Laurentius’s slides
Throughout his talk, Laurentius refers to a slidedeck. Follow the link below to download the slides as a PDF.
About Laurentius van den Worm CFA
Laurentius joined the Timeline Investment team in January 2022 after moving to the United Kingdom from South Africa. He serves as an investment strategist who oversees the fund research and selection, asset allocation and portfolio construction functions in collaboration with the CIO.
Laurentius has seven years experience in the South African investment markets. In his previous role, he served as an investment analyst and financial consultant in the wealth management industry in South Africa, where he gained experience in various financial activities, including portfolio management, investment research, financial analysis, and wealth management.
Laurentius holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Investment Management and a post-graduate diploma in financial planning from Stellenbosch University. He obtained his CFP® designation in South Africa in 2017 and is CFA Level 3 qualified in the UK.
If you’re a paraplanner who lives or works in striking distance of central London, then The Other London Assembly from 10am on Friday 20 October 2023 will be right up your street.
Hosted by Dan Atkinson and Andy Schleider, this is your chance to gather with paraplanners from your neck of the woods to learn what’s going on in each other’s worlds, share ideas, and discover practical tips and illuminating insights.
Book your spot and you’ll be able to shape the agenda for the two-hour get-together but – right now – we expect paraplanners taking part to exchange ideas on report writing and, now that the consumer duty is a feature of daily life, explore how we’re demonstrating ‘fair value’ in annual reviews.
Plus, the chance to tackle any other paraplanning topic that’s on your mind when we gather at the London Wall Place office of Barnett Waddingham.
From our very first meeting in 2013, the Paraplanners’ Assembly has created gatherings – in person and online and all over the UK – that spark collaboration and conversation.
Expect the same from The Other London Assembly.
After all, Assemblies only happen because paraplanners show up. You’ll feel you belong at The Other London Assembly because The Other London Assembly belongs to you.
So how about it? Book your spot now.
Capacity for loss. What is it? What isn’t it? And why it should be a paraplanner’s BFF* (if it isn’t already)?
To explore the topic, the Assembly’s own BFF, Patrick Ingram from Parmenion, joined us for a lunch-hour Assembly during which we covered some really interesting stuff including:
Capacity for loss and attitude to risk. What’s the difference?
Even though the combination of a client’s capacity for loss and their attitude to risk are significant factors when you’re working on a case, Patrick showed us why both ideas are so different – and what that means for clients.
Get busy with client balance sheets
We dug into ideas like ‘client balance sheet’ and ‘wealth ratios’, and explored how they offer both strategic and practical ways to settle on an investment approach that fits their financial position.
Safety first
We explored the idea of a ‘safety margin’. What is it? And how does the idea help insulate clients from financial risks while still allowing them the flexibility to adapt their strategy through life’s ups and downs?Â
When capacity for loss is such a significant feature of the day job, this was a great chance to catch up with the latest thinking.
*BFF = best friend forever
Host Richard Allum was joined by experts Rachel Geary and Murray Smith from Barnett Waddingham for a lunch-hour session exploring what clients need to know if they want to invest in property as part of their pension
Together, they covered the technical, regulatory and legal issues that influence pensions and property, and served up really valuable insights along the way.
Among the topics covered were:
- Why buy a commercial property with a pension?
- SIPP vs SSAS. What, why and when?
- Rules about property in a pension
- Technical and legal things to know about investing in commercial property with a pension
- FAQs. Which things crop up time and again?
- What can go wrong – and how to avoid it happening
Listen now
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New consumer duty rules come into force on 31 July (for new products and services, that is).
Yet as recently as last month, Citywire reported that 59% of advisers have not started preparing for the July deadline – that’s according to a survey of 1,000 advice firms commissioned by Aviva.
It got us wondering: what’s going on in advice practices across the UK?
Are firms comfortable with the deadline because they’re confident they’ve got all the consumer duty bases covered?
Or could they be underestimating the effect the consumer duty rules will have on how we all communicate with clients?
What’s happening where you work? And with client communications at the heart of the Duty – and the role of paraplanners – should we be worried?
To explore what’s going on, we invited Aegon UK’s public affairs director, Steven Cameron, and Gemma Knight, a director of Compliance and Training Solutions (CATS), to join us online for a lunch-hour Assembly.
Is your firm ready for the 31 July deadline?
Watch the replay or listen to the podcast to find out!
Tax year end. ALREADY?
Yes. But it wasn’t just any old hour’s worth of tax chat (attractive though we know that would be).
No. This is all about getting in the RIGHT MINDSET for 2023’s tax year end deadline.
(Like a HIIT workout. But without the HIIT bit. Or the workout.)
What it involved was coach and facilitator, Becca Timmins, being joined by Kez Condy and Jo Parkes from Navigatus, Zoe Hitchcock from Crowe UK and Emery Little’s Satu Flynn to discuss how they were getting in the zone for this year’s tax deadline.
The audience were invited to tune in as the group answer three questions:
- What went well at tax year end last year?
- What was a challenge?
- What will you take with you into this tax year end?
By sharing their insights and experiences from last year – combined with your own contributions in the chat – everyone taking part – on screen or off it – gained ideas, tips and techniques that could prove invaluable in countdown to the tax year deadline.