In the last of his quartet of bite-sized Assemblies on investing, Timeline investment strategist, Laurentius van den Worm, tackles the topic of market forecasting.
Given our recent experience with high inflation, higher interest rates not to mention pandemics, wars and conflict, is there much point attempting to forecast the future?
Or put another way: what’s the outlook for forecasting (geddit? 😉)
Tune in and you’ll soon discover that Laurentius thinks three things are worth remembering:
First, active managers rarely outperform the market long-term. Investors should get low-cost market exposure rather than try to beat it.
Secondly, missing just a few of the stock market’s best days over decades can seriously affect overall returns. Timing the market is extremely difficult, so investors should stay invested.
And finally, equities have created significant wealth over the past century and remain an essential feature of long-term financial plans.
What’s more fixed income can help reduce volatility (and traditional asset allocation still makes sense despite recent volatility).
The takeaway? Long-term historic trends remain a pretty sound basis for forecasts despite recent volatility. And equities tend to reward patient investors with long time horizons.
Rather than market timing, appropriate asset allocation and risk management enable investors to endure short-term swings.
But don’t take our word for it. Listen yourself now.
Listen now
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Missed out on previous episodes?
Catch up now with the first three episodes this bite-sized Assembly series.
Part 1: On modern portfolio theory. Laurentius explores modern portfolio theory’s key principles – like diversification and concepts such as the ‘efficient frontier – illustrating the topic with practical examples.
âž” Watch now
âž” Listen now
Part 2: On asset allocation. Join Laurentius as he explores the topic of asset allocation, asset classes, diversification of risk, real estate investment, and performance of real estate investment trusts compared to global equities.
âž” Watch now
âž” Listen now
Part 3: On sequencing risk. Laurentius brings the issues of sequencing risk to life by using an example of two sisters with equal returns but different retirement income due to market loss timing. (And explores essential concepts along the way too.)
âž” Watch now
âž” Listen now
About Laurentius van den Worm CFA
Laurentius joined the Timeline Investment team in January 2022 after moving to the United Kingdom from South Africa. He serves as an investment strategist who oversees the fund research and selection, asset allocation and portfolio construction functions in collaboration with the CIO.
Laurentius has seven years experience in the South African investment markets. In his previous role, he served as an investment analyst and financial consultant in the wealth management industry in South Africa, where he gained experience in various financial activities, including portfolio management, investment research, financial analysis, and wealth management.
Laurentius holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Investment Management and a post-graduate diploma in financial planning from Stellenbosch University. He obtained his CFP® designation in South Africa in 2017 and is CFA Level 3 qualified in the UK.
The team from Transact recently joined us to record a series of fantastic 5-10 minute audio treats. We hope you enjoy them.
Have you ever wondered what goes on behind the scenes when you place a trade on a platform? In this bite-sized Paraplanners’ Assembly Transact’s head of distribution, Glen Sweet, does just that.
In just FIVE minutes, Glen tells host, Richard Allum, all about trading points, settlement periods (including the difference between settlement of equities and funds), reconciliations, execution prices, trading windows…you get the idea.
When you consider the intro takes about 60 seconds it’s AMAZING how much insight and knowledge Glen packs in to his remaining 4 minutes and 23 seconds.
So if you’ve ever wanted to lift the lid on the workings of a platform, tune in to this episode for insights galore!
In the third episode of his series of bite-sized Assembly on investing, Timeline’s Laurentius van den Worm takes on the topic of sequencing risk.
In just 15 minutes he offers a working definition of sequencing risk he brings the topic to life with an example of two fictional sisters who – despite enjoying identical returns over their 30-year retirement journey – experience starkly different levels of income during…all because of the consequences of sequencing risk.
What’s more, Laurentius explores pound cost averaging and ravaging as well as the ‘4% rule’.
For paraplanners keen to top up on your investment know-how, it’s the ideal lunchtime listen.
Listen now
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Learn more
Missed out on previous episodes?
Catch up now with the first two episodes this bite-sized Assembly series.
Part 1: On modern portfolio theory. Laurentius explores modern portfolio theory’s key principles – like diversification and concepts such as the ‘efficient frontier – illustrating the topic with practical examples.
âž” Watch now
âž” Listen now
Part 2: On asset allocation. Join Laurentius as he explores the topic of asset allocation, asset classes, diversification of risk, real estate investment, and performance of real estate investment trusts compared to global equities.
âž” Watch now
âž” Listen now
About Laurentius van den Worm CFA
Laurentius joined the Timeline Investment team in January 2022 after moving to the United Kingdom from South Africa. He serves as an investment strategist who oversees the fund research and selection, asset allocation and portfolio construction functions in collaboration with the CIO.
Laurentius has seven years experience in the South African investment markets. In his previous role, he served as an investment analyst and financial consultant in the wealth management industry in South Africa, where he gained experience in various financial activities, including portfolio management, investment research, financial analysis, and wealth management.
Laurentius holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Investment Management and a post-graduate diploma in financial planning from Stellenbosch University. He obtained his CFP® designation in South Africa in 2017 and is CFA Level 3 qualified in the UK.
Timeline’s Laurentius van den Worm returns for the second in his series of four fast-paced fact-filled bite-sized Assemblies.
In the last episode, investment strategist Laurentius looked at modern portfolio theory (you can watch or listen to that episode after this).
This week, he takes on the topic of asset allocation.
Watch and – in less than 20 minutes – you will explore what asset allocation is and why it’s important. You’ll consider the characteristics of assets classes and what different types are. And you’ll dig into the question of whether asset class really are helpful if you want to diversify risk. Plus you’ll discover what the nature of the risks are.
Laurentius also asks why real estate is important before setting out the potential routes to gain exposure to property in a portfolio.
Finally, he takes a look at the performance of real estate investment trusts vs global equities – including a brief look at the correlation between global equities and real estate and what it tells us about the nature of diversification benefits.
Download Laurentius’s slides
Throughout his talk, Laurentius refers to a slidedeck. Follow the link below to download the slides as a PDF.
About Laurentius van den Worm CFA
Laurentius joined the Timeline Investment team in January 2022 after moving to the United Kingdom from South Africa. He serves as an investment strategist who oversees the fund research and selection, asset allocation and portfolio construction functions in collaboration with the CIO.
Laurentius has seven years experience in the South African investment markets. In his previous role, he served as an investment analyst and financial consultant in the wealth management industry in South Africa, where he gained experience in various financial activities, including portfolio management, investment research, financial analysis, and wealth management.
Laurentius holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Investment Management and a post-graduate diploma in financial planning from Stellenbosch University. He obtained his CFP® designation in South Africa in 2017 and is CFA Level 3 qualified in the UK.
Timeline’s investment strategist, Laurentius van den Worm, serves up a fast-paced fact-filled bite-sized Assembly exploring the elements of modern portfolio theory.
Following a whistle-stop summary of the origins of modern portfolio theory, Laurentius introduces the five key principles driving the approach: risk and return trade-off, diversification, risk assessment and the correlation of assets.
And if you’re wondering ‘But that’s just four principles!?’, you’d be right. That’s because Laurentius goes pretty deep into the fifth principle: the idea of the ‘efficient frontier’.
As well as looking at the efficient frontier in theory before seeing how it really plays out in practice (using Timeline’s technology to illustrate it, of course).
Along the way, he considers criticisms of modern portfolio theory too.
Altogether, it’s a great primer that’s packed full of insights and information that will appeal to paraplanners at every stage in their career.
Listen to this Assembly
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Learn more
Download Laurentius’s slides
Throughout his talk, Laurentius refers to a slidedeck. Follow the link below to download the slides as a PDF.
About Laurentius van den Worm CFA
Laurentius joined the Timeline Investment team in January 2022 after moving to the United Kingdom from South Africa. He serves as an investment strategist who oversees the fund research and selection, asset allocation and portfolio construction functions in collaboration with the CIO.
Laurentius has seven years experience in the South African investment markets. In his previous role, he served as an investment analyst and financial consultant in the wealth management industry in South Africa, where he gained experience in various financial activities, including portfolio management, investment research, financial analysis, and wealth management.
Laurentius holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Investment Management and a post-graduate diploma in financial planning from Stellenbosch University. He obtained his CFP® designation in South Africa in 2017 and is CFA Level 3 qualified in the UK.
Join us at 1pm on 27 September for a lunch-hour Assembly when we’ll be exploring the topic of capacity for loss.
We’ll be asking what it is, what it isn’t, and why it should be a paraplanner’s BFF* (if it isn’t already).
To do it, we’ll be joined by the Assembly’s own BFF, Patrick Ingram from Parmenion. In just 60 minutes, we expect to cover some really interesting issues including:
Capacity for loss and attitude to risk. What’s the difference?
Even though the combination of a client’s capacity for loss and their attitude to risk are significant factors when you’re working on a case, Patrick will show why both ideas are so different – and what that means for clients.
Get busy with client balance sheets
We’ll dig into ideas like ‘client balance sheet’ and ‘wealth ratios’ and explore how they offer both strategic and practical ways to settle on an investment approach that fits their financial position.
Safety first
We’ll explore the idea of a ‘safety margin’. What is it? And how does the idea help insulate clients from financial risks while still allowing them the flexibility to adapt their strategy through life’s ups and downs?
When capacity for loss is such a significant feature of the day job, this a great chance to catch up with the latest thinking.
Fancy coming along? Then tap the ‘Save my spot’ button now.
*BFF = best friend forever
Big reductions in allowances for capital gains tax and dividends announced in last November’s autumn statement invite the question: should we be re-thinking how we use investment bonds and GIAs?
In this lunchtime Assembly online, we were joined by Les Cameron from M&G Wealth to dig into the topic and consider the consequences for paraplanning of the changes.
Over the course of the hour we covered:
- the tax landscape and recent changes
- how the internal tax on investment bonds works
- pros and cons of each tax wrapper
- planning opportunities before and after tax year end
- how rebalancing, bed and ISA, DIMs and self assessment fit into planning
We concluded by taking a look at M&G’s new tax wrapper comparison tool.
Listen to this Assembly
As you can see below, we’ve published this Assembly as our latest podcast episode. Because Les is talking about the contents of a presentation, it’s definitely worth downloading his slidedeck (opens in PowerPoint online) and following along if you can.
Heather Hopkins of NextWealth and Andrew Nash from Pru joined host, Richard Allum, for an online Assembly at 1pm on 12 October 2022.
During the hour-long event they covered the emerging trends in CRPs including thoughts on the effect that consumer duty is having on propositions.
They also covered other topics such as whether secure income is making a comeback and insights into client perspectives on the information that advice professionals provide to them.
From now on, there’s no need to visit Crowdcast to save your spot at an online Assembly. Just tap ‘Book event’ and follow the step-by-step instructions.
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We all know that research and due diligence is a key skill for paraplanners.
And with discretionary fund management (DFM) services becoming more popular – whether bespoke or model portfolios – the demand for these skills is only going to increase.
In our latest online Assembly, we’re bringing together experts who are able to share perspectives from both sides of the DFM equation.
Learning objectives
During this session we…
Explored the approach and processes you can adopt to carry out research discuss the tech that’s out there that can help Invited DFM guests to tell us what they think paraplanners should ask…but don’t Discover what kind of due diligence DFMs carry out for themselves
In this brief but wide-ranging conversation, Will Mcintosh-Whyte of Rathbones talks with Richard Allum of the Paraplanners’ Assembly tackle the question of what ‘responsible investment’ is and whether it differs from ideas like ESG, or ‘ethical’ and ‘sustainable’ investing.